Sinner vs Djokovic: Shanghai Final Analysis
Creating space, releasing the pressure, point construction, a moment of magic
Sinner def. Djokovic 7-6(4), 6-3.
In a tightly contested final on Sunday, Jannik Sinner claimed the Shanghai Masters 1000 title, triumphing over Novak Djokovic in straight sets. Sinner continued his sensational 2024 season, picking up his third Masters 1000 title of the season, and prolonging Djokovic’s wait for his 100th title.
Let’s get into the analysis.
Creating space - Sinner’s forehand
One of the hardest tasks in tennis is trying to create enough space on the court against Novak Djokovic. The Serb has ruled the baseline over his career, and it is incredibly difficult to out-duel him if he becomes settled there.
Despite this daunting challenge, Sinner was (at times) able to push Djokovic out of position and open up the court, giving him more room to search for winners.
Sinner’s inside-out forehand was a big contributor – it frequently pushed Djokovic out wide on his backhand wing, leaving him on the stretch.
Here is an excellent example. Djokovic hits a central slice, and Sinner easily accesses his forehand wing, hitting the ball inside-out and pushing Djokovic out wide, even though he is already deep behind the baseline. Djokovic can only reply with a sliced backhand, allowing Sinner to hit an inside-in forehand into the open court, which he hits with aplomb for a winner.
In fact, in points where Sinner was able to hit an inside-out forehand in a rally, he won 9/13 points (69%) – consequently proving to be one of his most successful forehand shot types of the night.
Clutch serving
Sinner’s serve is also turning into a big weapon his game – it can generate enough free points and +1 opportunities, even against very high-quality returners like Djokovic. He is also hitting the first serve regularly in tight moments, bailing him out in tight situations.
He was able to get himself out of trouble against Djokovic at 4-5 0-30 in the first set – an important moment in the match. Djokovic had varied the pace on the first two returns of the game, and Sinner quickly found himself in a spot of bother. Enter two unreturned serves. It was reminiscent of the ace he served against Alcaraz down 4-6 in the first set tiebreaker. Clutch serving is becoming a theme.
Djokovic releases the pressure on big points
One of Djokovic’s (numerous) assets is his ability to constantly apply pressure on his opponents. He looks to gain little advantages here and there, which compound over time and generally lead to break point opportunities.
However, Djokovic made some uncharacteristic errors at the net on Sunday, which prematurely relieved the pressure on Sinner at key junctures in the match. This inability to put the foot down when Sinner was under pressure contributed to Djokovic’s struggles in trying to generate break points. As has been heavily discussed, Djokovic hasn’t created a break point against Sinner in the last 6 sets they’ve played.
An example of a big pressure release comes in the first-set tiebreaker. Djokovic is in command of the point all the way – he hits a big first serve, follows in the short return from Sinner and hits a decent approach. Sinner is able to get a decent amount of power on the backhand cross-court reply, but it’s a volley that Djokovic would expect to make. Instead of making Sinner serve it out at 5-4, Sinner earns himself 3 set points. Fine margins.
Another example comes from the 2-1 game in the second set where Djokovic was broken. Djokovic manages to get a solid forehand approach shot in, and is in a good position to execute a sliced backhand volley. Again, it’s not an easy volley, but one that Djokovic would expect to execute. Instead, he nets it, and Sinner earns himself two break points – when it could have so easily been back to 30-all.
All-in-all, it wasn’t the best day at the net for Djokovic. He converted less than half (45%) of his net points:
Short note on point construction
Although Djokovic was guilty of hitting the ball too centrally at times against Sinner, he still demonstrated his prowess at constructing points. His ability to re-direct the ball with his forehand allowed him to create space on the court and enabled him to approach the net.
A good example comes from deep in the first set tiebreak. Djokovic sets up the point with a big off-angle forehand, pushing Sinner deep and wide behind the baseline. He is then able to capitalise on the short Sinner backhand, hitting a topspin heavy forehand cross-court, buying him time and space to put away the drop volley. A masterfully constructed point.
A moment of magic
The match in general was one of extremely fine margins. However, there was one moment of brilliance from Sinner that, in the end, separated the two.
On Sinner’s second break point – the final one he would earn for the night, he produced a moment of magic, managing to blast a running forehand winner that earned him the sole and decisive break of the match.
As can be seen below, Sinner could only get a fairly short reply back from the Djokovic serve, and Djokovic immediately follows up with an accurate cross-court forehand that pushes Sinner completely off the court and out of frame. But Sinner, with his wonderful athleticism and those spindly limbs, manages to hit a spectacular, swatted running forehand down the line for a winner, leaving Djokovic rooted to the spot.
It's moments of magic like these that are required against Djokovic – Sinner mentioned that Djokovic does not give his opponents many chances over the course of a match:
“It’s tough to tell you a secret about [Djokovic] because he doesn’t have any weaknesses. You have to try and use the small chances that he gives you, but there are not many during the match…”
Overall thoughts
Another superb match of tennis. Sinner has shown that he can produce a consistently high level of tennis – in fact, his consistency in 2024 has been the gold standard on the ATP Tour. He’s continually adding new facets to his game – the improvement of his serve adds to an already potent mix of powerful groundstrokes, elite athleticism and elite defence.
Sinner has continued to rack up phenomenal numbers this year. His tiebreak record is now 24-8, and he’s racked up a third Masters 1000 to go alongside his AO triumph in January. Not only that, but it’s been a tumultuous back half of the year for Sinner – but he is showing a steely resilience that belies his age.
There were a few question marks about whether Djokovic’s movement was quite at 100%, but even so, he still played at a high level - Sinner was just able to find another gear.
As always, it’s another incredibly short turnaround – these two are set to face off again imminently, but this time in the Six Kings tournament.
Thanks for reading!