Australian Open Women’s Draw Analysis
Biggest threats, upset chances, players under the radar, implied probabilities
The Australian Open gets underway tomorrow, so it’s a perfect time to look at the women’s draw. This will be a fun one – I’ll predict who’s most likely to advance from each quarter, who’s most likely to cause an upset (or two), and who’s going under the radar.
I’m curious to hear your thoughts – there’s a poll for each quarter.
Let’s get straight into it.
Quarter 1 – Sabalenka’s to lose?
Quarter 1 is one of the more lopsided quarters in the women’s draw. According to the bookmakers1 and also Tennis Abstract, it looks to be a two-horse race between Sabalenka and Zheng – and even then, Sabalenka is way ahead:
Prediction: Sabalenka def. Zheng. It’s hard to go past Sabalenka at the Australian Open. Sabalenka has an imperious record at the AO – since 2021, she has a win/loss record of 20-2, winning the title back-to-back in 2023 and 2024. She hits the biggest ball on tour, and she’s brimming with confidence. It will take something special to beat her at here across the whole tournament, let alone the quarter.
Biggest threat to the favourite: Zheng. Zheng finished last year with a flourish, making it all the way to the WTA Finals, beating Rybakina, Paolini and Krejcikova along the way. She chose to take a rest period over the United Cup, so she’ll be fresh as anyone. She’s got a massive forehand that can trouble anyone, including Sabalenka, if it gets firing. Her path to the 4th round is more than doable – Todoni (qualifier), Siegemund, Pavlyuchenkova and Vekic/Shnaider.
Under-the-radar/potential bolter: Andreeva. She might only be 17, but Mirra Andreeva is more than capable of causing a stir in this tough quarter. She’s a patient and quality baseliner who can trouble most of the women’s tour already. She also has a great run through to the 3rd round and could set up a showdown with Sabalenka in the 4th round. That would be a great chance for her to test her level against the best in the business on hard courts.
Upset chance: Vekic. Vekic is more than capable of making a big Slam run – look no further than 2024, where Vekic made it all the way to the Wimbledon semifinals and was oh-so-close to the final. She reached the quarters here at the Australian Open in 2023 too. But it will still be very tough with a potential R16 matchup with Zheng, and then even if she wins that, it’s likely to be Sabalenka next.
Quarter 2 – Quality galore
Quarter 2 is arguably the most exciting of the lot for this year’s AO, and one of the toughest to progress from. The quarter is stuffed full of stars everywhere you look: Gauff, Muchova, Pegula, Osaka, Badosa, Ostapenko – you get the point. The winner of this quarter will be chock-full of confidence as they move to the semis:
Prediction: Gauff def Pegula. It’s hard to go against Coco here – she is in sublime touch heading into this year’s AO, fresh off a 5-0 United Cup run. Kenin provides a tricky first-round test, but it should get easier from there, before a potential face-off against Muchova/Ostapenko/Osaka in the 4th round. If she can get through the 4th round, it’s probably going to be Pegula/Badosa waiting for her. I’ll back her to get through, but it won’t be easy.
Biggest threat to the favourite: Muchova. Muchova is all class – she’s phenomenal at the net and has a lovely game that can challenge anyone on court. She reached the semis here in 2021 too. Muchova might have Osaka to deal with early though.
Under-the-radar: Pegula. Perennially under the radar, Pegula has a friendly run to the 4th round, where she might meet Badosa. Badosa will pose a big challenge, but Pegula has elite defensive skills and is incredibly consistent. If she makes it to the quarters, Gauff will have a tricky assignment on her hands.
Upset chance: Ostapenko. Ostapenko is wild and dangerous. If there was a definition for ‘all-or-nothing’ in the dictionary, her name would be written there a hundred times over. If she finds her range early, she’s a threat to everyone, including Gauff. She made the quarterfinals here in 2023, and you just don’t know what she’ll come up with next.
Fun match-up: Osaka vs Garcia. It’s an identical match-up to the first round of the AO last year – what are the chances? Fun fact: these two also share the same birthday. More importantly, these two are both very experienced, and an excellent first-round matchup awaits. If Osaka wins and gets her confidence going, this quarter could get really shaken up.
Quarter 3 – A quarter for the taking
Quarter 3 is a mixed bag. Rybakina hasn’t set the world on fire recently, Paolini has struggled a little more on hard courts, while Keys and Collins have been plagued by injuries and/or inconsistency. Boulter has been robust, but does she have the weapons to go really deep in a slam? This quarter is there for the taking – who can get on a roll?
Prediction: Rybakina def. Paolini. Rybakina has a friendly run to the 4th round, where she may have to face off against one of Keys/Collins – two big American hitters that will pose a tricky test. If Rybakina is able to reign in the unforced errors, I back her to beat either. Then it’s one of Paolini/Boulter/Svitolina in the quarters – again, if she plays well enough, she can win all of these matches. Paolini will be a tough test.
Biggest threat to the favourite: Paolini. It might be an obvious choice, but as I wrote about recently, Paolini can mix it with the best on the WTA Tour. She’s ranked no.4 in the world for a reason, and she beat Rybakina in straight sets in the WTA Finals. Her confidence is up, and although hard court is not her favourite surface, she’s more than capable of inflicting some serious damage. Svitolina in the 4th round may be tricky.
Under-the-radar: Boulter. Boulter finished 2024 strongly, reaching the semi-final of the Japan Open in October 2024, backing it up by reaching the final of the Hong Kong Open less than two weeks later. She went 2-1 in the United Cup, pushing Swiatek to three sets. If she can overcome Haddad Maia in the 3rd round, Paolini/Svitolina awaits, and she is capable of winning either of those matchups if she is playing her very best tennis.
Upset chance: Collins. Although set to retire at the end of the 2024 season, Collins decided to stick around for another season in 2025. She had a disrupted end to the year, and lost in the first round of Adelaide to Ons Jabeur. At her best, she is a big ball striker and a phenomenal returner. She made it all the way to the final in 2022, so she’s capable of going deep in the tournament. Collins vs. Keys shapes as a great 3rd round matchup, with Rybakina to potentially follow in the 4th. That’ll be tough.
Quarter 4 – Swiatek leads the way
Quarter 4 is Swiatek’s to lose, according to the bookmakers and Tennis Abstract. While there are some names that could pose a tough test, like Navarro, Raducanu and Anisimova, if Swiatek is playing at close to her best level, it will be tough to stop her progressing through to the semi-finals:
Prediction: Swiatek def. Navarro. If Swiatek is playing near her best level, she should be able to progress through this quarter - unless there’s a big boilover.
Biggest threat to the favourite: Navarro – maybe, if she can get going. Navarro has a favourable draw nearly all the way through to the quarters, with her biggest obstacles being potentially Sakkari or Kasatkina/Putintseva. Her form has been the concern, being knocked out early in Brisbane and Adelaide. She’ll need to re-capture her late season form which saw her reach a maiden semi-final berth at the US Open.
Under-the-radar: Putintseva. She can be a polarising figure at times, but Putintseva’s lead-in to this year’s AO has been really solid. In Adelaide, she made it all the way to the semi-finals, beating Vekic, Jabeur and Shnaider on the way before eventually losing to Pegula. She’s only ever made it to the third round of the AO before, but only Kasatkina stands in the way of a maiden 4th round berth.
Upset chance: Anisimova. One of the biggest hitters on the tour – Anisimova has the weapons to trouble Swiatek, who she might meet in the 3rd round. She has made the 4th round at the AO on three separate occasions, so she’s had some success at Melbourne Park. Consistency on her groundstrokes remain a concern, but if she can get those in check and still play aggressive tennis, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Anisimova to shake up this quarter, big time.
Fun match-up: Anisimova vs Raducanu. A really exciting second-round match could await us. Raducanu, who has another disrupted lead up to a Grand Slam, could face off against Animisova. Both have a big future in tennis – can one of them stamp their authority and build their confidence ahead of a potential 3rd round showdown with Swiatek?
Thanks to everyone for reading - I hope everyone is as excited about the Australian Open as I am! I’ll be there in-person for the 4R and QF’s. I intended to also get a men’s draw analysis out, but I’m running short on time, as ever. -AP
Short note on implied probability: To estimate the implied probability (percentage chance) of each player winning their respective quarter, I used the odds from three Australian bookmakers.
Let’s use Iga Swiatek as an example. If, across the three bookmakers, Swiatek is paying an average of $2.00 to win the Australian Open (+100 for US), then the implied probability is 1/2 = 0.5; and then 0.5*100 = 50%. Therefore, Swiatek has an implied 50% probability of winning the AO, according to the bookmakers’ odds.
However, bookmakers build in a profit margin into their odds. This means that across the entire women’s draw, the sum of all implied probabilities (the percentages) will be greater than 100%. To correct for this, I use a scaling factor to adjust the probabilities so they sum to 100%.
For example, if the sum of the implied probabilities across the entire women’s draw is 110%, then I scale the existing probabilities down by a factor of 0.91 (as 100/110 = ~0.91). So, if Swiatek’s implied probability of winning the AO is 50% before scaling, then it becomes 50*0.91 = 45.5% after adjustment.
Good read of Ladies draw and like the voting poll