Wimbledon Women’s Draw Analysis
Biggest threats, upset chances, players under the radar, implied probabilities
As ever, the grass season has raced along in the blink of an eye. With the main draw of Wimbledon getting underway today, let’s take a look at who’s poised to make a big run.
Across the rush of tournaments this June, no definitive favourite for Wimbledon has emerged. The front of the pack includes Sabalenka and Gauff, fresh off their Roland Garros final appearances last month, but with a point to prove on grass; followed by a strong core of challengers settling in close behind: Rybakina, Swiatek and Keys. And as always, there’s a host of upset threats, not least including Marketa Vondrousova.
I’ll predict who’s most likely to advance from each quarter, who’s most likely to cause an upset, and who’s going under the radar. I’ll also looked at the implied probability1 of each player winning their quarter, alongside Tennis Abstract forecasts.2 There’s a poll for each quarter, so you can have your say too!
Quarter 1
According to the bookmakers and Tennis Abstract, Sabalenka is the likeliest to progress through Quarter 1. However, there is plenty of quality in the quarter – Keys has been in close to career-best form this year; Vondrousova defeated Sabalenka a week ago in Berlin en route to the title; Vekic made the semi-finals here last year; and Svitolina and Badosa are perennial threats.
Prediction: Keys def. Sabalenka. It might be a little rogue, but Madison Keys could steal this tricky quarter away from Sabalenka. Keys has a great record on grass – she’s 50-18 (74%) all-time and made the semi-finals at Wimbledon in 2018. Her lead-in to Wimbledon wasn’t perfect, losing to the eventual champions at Queen’s (Maria) and Berlin (Vondrousova), but her game is suited to this quicker surface and she’s having a great year.
Biggest threat to the favourite: Sabalenka. Sabalenka hasn’t historically enjoyed as much success on grass compared to other surfaces, and yet she is still a dual semi-finalist at Wimbledon – the last time coming two years ago in ‘23. She’s remarkably consistent and has become something of a permanent fixture deep into slams. Her draw is tricky though – Vondrousova looms as a huge upset threat in the third round, and Svitolina also made the semis here in 2023.
Under-the-radar: Svitolina. She tends to track under the radar a lot, but Svitolina tends to reserve her best tennis for the slams. She’s made the semi-finals at Wimbledon twice, most recently in 2023, and her early draw is fairly friendly – Mertens might await in the third round, before a showdown against Sabalenka/Vondrousova in the fourth round.
Upset chances: Vekic. The lead-up to Wimbledon was underwhelming for Vekic, losing to Shnaider in the first round in Berlin, and in the second round to Noskova at Bad Homburg. But she enjoys the grass, and she was oh-so-close to a Wimbledon final berth last year. Badosa might await in the third round, which would be fun.
Quarter 2
Quarter 2 is an incredibly even quarter – there’s no clear-cut standout, according to the bookmakers and Tennis Abstract. Paolini assumes slight favouritism on the back of her finals loss last year here at Wimbledon, but there are a whole host of threats – Zheng, Anisimova, Osaka and Jabeur, to name a few. It’s a quarter that’s up for grabs.
Prediction: Paolini def Zheng. This was a tough one. Paolini’s draw is fairly kind through the first three rounds, with Anisimova a potential fourth round matchup. She’s done it here before, and looked in decent touch at Bad Homburg, losing to Swiatek in the semi-finals.
Biggest threat to the favourite: Zheng. Zheng has the much tougher draw in this quarter – she’ll likely need to take down Osaka in the second round and one of Ostapenko/Jabeur in the fourth round just to see the quarter-finals. She’s played so little on grass over her career, and she’s certainly liable to be upset. But I’m ever-so-slightly more bullish about her ability to go deep into a slam than Ostapenko/Osaka/Jabeur right now.
Under-the-radar: Anisimova. Is this Anisimova’s chance to make a big statement? She’s got all the tools to be successful on the grass – not least her massive groundstrokes, for which she will get even more bang-for-buck on this surface. She made the final at Queen’s, which included the big scalps of Navarro and Zheng, and made the quarter-finals at Berlin. If she can get past Putintseva in the first round, her draw opens up a little, and she could push Paolini in a potential fourth round clash.
Upset chances: Jabeur. She’s suffered the ultimate heartbreak twice here at Wimbledon, but it’s no secret that Jabeur loves to play on the grass. She went through qualifiers at Berlin, making it to the quarter-finals, losing to Vondrousova (no shame in that). The big question: can she find her best tennis, consistently enough, to go deep here once again? A huge second round match-up with Ostapenko awaits – which will be a great litmus test. Honourable mention: Ostapenko, Osaka.
Quarter 3
Quarter 3 is also extremely tough to call. Once again, no clear favourite emerges from the bookmakers’ odds or from Tennis Abstract. Andreeva and Pegula firms as likely threats, but last year’s champion Krejcikova lurks in the draw, alongside Eastbourne runner-up Eala.
PREDICTION: Pegula def. Andreeva. Consistency is so important to make a deep slam run – and Pegula is close to textbook in this department. She plays a resolute brand of baseline tennis that is hard to break down. She’s fresh from beating Swiatek to claim the Bad Homburg title, and her draw is friendly enough – Maria is a likely second round opponent, with Bencic potentially in the third round.
Biggest threat to the favourite: Andreeva. It’s been a bit of a rocky road for Andreeva following her defeat to Lois Boisson in the quarter-finals at the French Open, but if she finds her footing here in this quarter, she’ll be a tough proposition for any opponent. The first three rounds will give her a great chance to build some momentum, before Krejcikova/Navarro may await in the fourth round.
Under-the-radar: Navarro. It feels a little strange to have the 10th seed here – but Navarro could cause some real damage in the quarter. Kvitova in the first round will not be easy, and Krejcikova might await a couple of rounds later, but on best form, she can win both. Her lead-up has been okay too – losing to Badosa in the R16 in Berlin, and losing to Pegula in the quarter-finals of Bad Homburg. Honourable mention: Muchova.
Upset chances: Krejcikova. The reigning champion here at Wimbledon, Krejcikova finds herself with a tricky early draw in this quarter – coming up against Eala in the first round and Navarro in the third round. She hasn’t played a whole lot of tennis, which looms as a big question mark. Will her fitness hold up for an extended run here? If she can, watch out. Honourable mention: Eala.
Quarter 4
Quarter 4 is arguably the most exciting at this year’s Wimbledon – with three genuine title challengers all together: Rybakina, Swiatek and Gauff. Rybakina is most lethal on the grass; Gauff is fresh off her triumph at Roland Garros, and Swiatek is beginning to re-capture some form.
Prediction: Swiatek def Gauff. Swiatek is an interesting proposition at Wimbledon this year. Grass is her least favourite surface – she’s only made it to the quarter-finals here once in 2023, and she has Rybakina in her side of the quarter. However, fresh off making the final at Bad Homburg, and with a friendly run until the fourth round, I’m backing Swiatek’s experience in here. She’ll still be the one to beat.
Biggest threat to the favourite: Rybakina. It’s no secret that the former champion here loves playing on grass – her big-hitting, big-serving game style is conducive to success here at Wimbledon. Swiatek looms as a huge match-up in the fourth round, and the winner of that match probably goes on to win the quarter. My only question mark is whether she can be consistent enough over the course of the tournament. Honourable mention: Gauff.
Under-the-radar: Gauff. No, she’s not really under the radar at all, but Coco hasn’t enjoyed the grass as much as the other surfaces – maybe best evidenced by a first round exit at Berlin against Wang. Her best finish here is multiple fourth round finishes, but she’s well placed to make a maiden quarter-final berth here. Azarenka stands as a huge threat in the second round, though.
Upset chances: Azarenka. A big match-up with Gauff in the second round seems very likely here – and if she can win that – the draw will be completely shaken up. She’s more than capable.
Thanks as always for reading. I’ve once again run out of time to do the men’s draw, but if anyone is interested in seeing the implied probabilities for the men’s quarters, just let me know! See you in a fortnight for a recap of the finals.
To estimate the implied probability (percentage chance) of each player winning their respective quarter, the odds of four Australian bookmakers have been used.
Let’s use Iga Swiatek as an example. If, across the three bookmakers, Swiatek is paying an average of $2.00 to win her quarter at the French Open (+100 for US), then the implied probability is 1/2 = 0.5; and then 0.5*100 = 50%. Therefore, Swiatek has an implied 50% probability of winning her quarter, according to the bookmakers’ odds.
However, bookmakers build in a profit margin into their odds. This means that for each quarter, the sum of all implied probabilities (the percentages) will be greater than 100%. To correct for this, I use a scaling factor to adjust the probabilities so they sum to 100%. I limit the scaling factor to the sum of the top 8 players in each quarter (i.e., the 8 players with the best odds of winning the quarter).
For example, if the sum of the implied probabilities across the top 8 players in Swiatek’s quarter is 110%, then I scale the existing probabilities down by a factor of 0.91 (as 100/110 = ~0.91). So, if Swiatek’s implied probability of winning her French Open quarter is 50% before scaling, then it becomes 50*0.91 = 45.5% after adjustment.
A scaling factor is also applied to the Tennis Abstract forecasts, so that the 8 players featured in each quarter’s chart will sum to 100%. In order to view the raw forecast percentages, please visit here: https://www.tennisabstract.com/current/2025WimbledonWomenForecast.html