Gauff vs Świątek: United Cup Final Analysis

Coco’s new forehand, dynamic tennis, elite returning, second serves

Gauff def. Świątek 6-4, 6-4.

Coco Gauff sent a warning message to the rest of the WTA tour on Sunday night, defeating Iga Świątek in straight sets. While their head-to-head remains lopsided, Gauff has now won the last two matches without dropping a set. Gauff finished the United Cup undefeated with a 5-0 record and has firmly positioned herself as a contender for this year’s Australian Open.

Let’s get into the analysis.

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Gauff’s forehand improvements

Gauff has made some important improvements to her forehand since appointing Matt Daly as her coach in September 2024.

Two things really stood out to me on Sunday: Gauff appears to have a shorter, more compact backswing than in the past; and she is hitting her forehand with more variety, in terms of both spin and height.

Technical changes

One of the big problems with Gauff’s forehand has been her inefficient swing path. Gauff’s forehand motion has generally featured a long, exaggerated backswing. This has posed a few issues for Coco, particularly against heavier ball strikers and when the ball is hit with depth, as her forehand becomes rushed due to the longer preparation time. Further to this point, the longer backswing can also result in inconsistent contact points with the ball.

Here is an example of Gauff’s forehand at the WTA Finals in 2022:

Gauff hits the forehand with a full loop – that is, she makes a “C” shape with the entire forehand motion. The loop is very pronounced here - she is almost late in her timing of the ball here due to the large amount of time taken to complete the backswing. The follow-through is also somewhat sluggish. Source

However, over the last few months, Gauff has truncated her backswing, making her swing path more efficient. The shorter backswing has also resulted in a more compact, controlled follow-through. The example below was taken during the US Open last year:

Gauff has a shorter backswing compared to the example immediately above. The loop has tightened and is being completed at a faster pace. The follow-through is much snappier. Source

Here’s a look at a different angle from Sunday’s match – the shorter backswing is evident, alongside the snappier follow-through:

Short note on grip change: I’m nowhere near an expert in analysing grip changes. Tennis Inside Numbers pointed out that Gauff may have also altered her grip so that she can hit the ball with a slightly more open face. Happy to hear thoughts in the comments!

Tactical changes

Alongside the technical tweaks to Gauff’s forehand, there has also been some tactical adjustments – she looked to vary her pace and trajectory of her forehand shots against Świątek on Sunday.

There were several instances of Gauff hitting forehands with greater topspin and greater height, aiming to disrupt the rhythm of Świątek’s groundstrokes and altering the pace of the rally. Some examples below:

Gauff varies the pace and height of her forehand significantly on this point. She first hits a blistering forehand return that is deep and flat. She then follows it up with a whipped, looping forehand cross-court, forcing an adjustment from Świątek on the baseline. The next forehand is also hit with a higher trajectory and more topspin. Gauff goes on to win this point and gets the break back.

A more subtle example. The first Gauff forehand goes back in behind Świątek with greater height and top spin. The second forehand is hit flatter and faster, disrupting Świątek’s rhythm just enough to induce the forehand error.

Have these changes had an effect?

Although it’s too early to reach a definitive conclusion, it appears that Gauff’s forehand performance is improving as a result of these forehand tweaks. There’s also a good range of recent matches between Gauff and Świątek on hard courts to make some reasonable comparisons.

On Sunday, Gauff hit 11 forehand winners (8 groundstroke winners + 3 net winners) and 11 forehand unforced errors.¹ Gauff’s 1:1 ratio of forehand winners to forehand unforced errors represents her best forehand performance against Świątek when playing on hard courts, by some margin:

Source: Tennis Inside Numbers (check out their substack here) and Tennis Abstract data.

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Dynamic tennis

Now, more focus on the match. The quality of the rallies played were sensational at times. Gauff and Świątek are in the top echelons of the tour in both court movement and athleticism, and the match showcased these capabilities to their full extent.

The rally below – one of the best in the match – highlights how sublime Gauff’s defence is, managing to get back three extremely tough balls back into play, with one of them being a sensational defensive lob. It also highlights Świątek’s rapidity, as she tracks back and recovers from the lob with great composure.

Gauff is stretched to her defensive limits on the baseline, yet holds firm; Świątek is desperately trying to convert her advantage in the rally, which she duly does. Enthralling stuff from both. Phenomenal movement and athleticism. The sort of quality you’d expect deep into a slam.

An example of pure athleticism below from Gauff – she gets a fortuitous net cord to keep her in the rally in the first place, Świątek follows it up with a cross-court approach that is sliding away from Gauff. Most would think the point is lost by now. Not Coco. Gauff leverages her phenomenal lateral movement to not only reach the ball, but hit an unreal passing shot that Świątek can’t do anything about.

What a get.

The level of tennis on display can maybe best be summed up by the rally on the second point of the match. Yes, the second point.

Świątek is already unleashing the weapons in her arsenal, engaging Gauff in a quality cross-court forehand duel before striking with a backhand/forehand combo to finish the point.

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Second serve returning

Outside of those brilliant rallies, both Świątek and Gauff’s return of serve stood out. Gauff and Świątek are both exceptional returners – they were the top two returners on the WTA tour last year. In fact, in 2024, Gauff and Świątek generated the most break point opportunities per return game and won the highest percentage of return games.

The chart below shows just how far ahead of the pack they are - the y-axis represents the number of break points earned (‘generated’) per return game; the x-axis represents the percentage of return games won.

Those in the top right corner earn more break points per return game than average and win a greater percentage of return games (i.e., convert their break points) than average:

Source: Tennis Abstract data. Visualisation by author.

Both players showed off their considerable returning prowess on Sunday, particularly on second serves. Świątek was quick to capitalise on anything short from the Gauff second serve, not afraid to step inside the baseline and to hit returns with interest, like below:

Świątek moves forward quickly on the Gauff second serve, stepping inside the baseline despite the serve out wide. She’s able to get fantastic purchase on the return and gets a short reply from Gauff, before finishing the point with another booming forehand. Quality.

Gauff often ran around on to her forehand wing, managing to club several fast and deep returns back to Świątek. Maybe none were so important in the match as this one at set point in the first set:

Gauff unloads on the forehand return, getting right on top of the ball and directing straight back at Świątek. Although the point doesn’t end immediately, Gauff ends up winning this point and takes the set.

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Short thoughts on double faults

Gauff’s second serve woes have been well-documented over her career. In 2024, she served an average of 6.1 double faults per match, which ranked third on tour last year – a rate which will clearly not be sustainable in the long-term:

Source: Tennis Abstract data.

However, on Sunday, she served only 4 double faults (one of them did fall on break point at 2-2 in the 2^nd set) against the best returner on tour, who is notorious for putting pressure on second serves. Vansh astutely pointed out that Gauff has made changes to her serve grip, which has coincided with more stability on her second serve. Something to monitor over the AO.

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Final thoughts

Overall, a fantastic advertisement for women’s tennis. It’s already a phenomenal product, but to see these two battle it out with this sort of intensity and ferocity in a non-major tournament says a lot.

Świątek really wanted to win this for Poland – we saw her passionate reaction after she defeated Rybakina just a day earlier. But Gauff wasn’t to be denied, continuing her rich vein of form. She’s building a really strong case to make a deep run at this year’s Australian Open.

Although the rivalry has been so lopsided, I think the ledger may continue to shift closer and closer to parity over time. That’s not to say that Świątek won’t win her fair share of matches in this head-to-head going forward; just that the gap between these two is narrowing all the time.

There’s a lot more to come from this rivalry. I’m looking forward to seeing what unfolds.

1. An article for another day, but publicly available data for tennis pales in comparison to other major sports, such as the NBA. Without Tennis Abstract (and all of their wonderful contributors to the Match Charting Project), I’d be in deep trouble. Thanks also to Tennis Inside Numbers for providing valuable match data.